Friday, 16 March 2018

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Day Four: Offer The Bookies No Respect In Gold Cup Battle

Another fantastic Cheltenham Festival comes to a close on Friday with the Triumph Hurdle getting us underway and the Grand Annual marking the end of another frantic four days.
All eyes though are on the 3.30 race when 18 line up for what looks like a testing and competitive Gold Cup.  Given the conditions and the lack of a Denman or Best Mate we may be able to swerve the favourites and land a big win at a nice price in the feature race.

1.30 (Triumph Hurdle) – STORMY IRELAND

The form of Farclas and Mr Adjudicator may be better than it looks while favourite Apple’s Shakira is some people’s idea of a banker but I don’t fancy any of that form if I’m honest.  Redicean can go really well for Alan King and could prove the value among the jollies but the one for me will be this Stormy Ireland who won with his head in his chest at Fairyhouse and can go in again.

2.10 (County Hurdle) – FLYING TIGER

Nick Williams’ contender has been running in better races than this and they think a lot of him at home.  His handicap mark doesn’t really reflect the efforts he’s given in graded races though and he may well go on and take this ahead of the interesting Willie Mullins duo of Meri Devie and Sandsend who both look like big improvers going into the race.

2.50 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) – CHEF DES OBEAUX

Nicky Henderson holds a very strong hand this year with market leaders Chef Des Obeaux and Santini.  Many fancy the latter named but the distance is a worry for me given his strength over 2m4f, while Chef Des Obeaux definitely stays and is himself still getting better with every run.
Chris’s Dream and Poetic Rhythm may well run on for place money but the trophy and a good chunk of the prize money should be heading back to Henderson’s yard and well deserved it will be too.

3.30 (Gold Cup) – ROAD TO RESPECT

The fact that this could be the most testing Gold Cup for years brings Brian Ellison’s Definitly Red right into play, though despite the soft ground I feel he may lack a turn of foot when the race gets interesting.  Our Duke and Kilultagh Vic are contenders but are probably just a few pounds behind the main trio.
That trio for me are the well touted Mite Bite and Native River along with our selection Road To Respect.  Might Bite has proper credentials being a festival winner last year (RSA Chase) and this season a King George winner too.  Native River was third in this last year and looks a better horse now but we will stick with our Leopardstown Christmas Chase form which gave us an 8/1 winner yesterday.
Balko Des Flos followed home Road To Respect that day before easily beating hotpot Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair Chase here on Thursday and that form looks rock solid.  Our horse is still improving, stays well and handles the ground and could be crowned champion for Noel Meade and Gigginstown Stud.

4.10 (Foxhunter Challenge Cup) – FOXROCK

Likely shortish priced favourite Burning Ambition will be the one most punters follow and it’ll be no real surprise to see that one win, however Alan Fleming’s Foxrock has all the credentials for this and has one of the best jockeys available on board too.
Wonderful Charm and Caid Du Berlais should also be popular in the ring and should run on for place money, all things being equal.

4.50 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle) – BLOW BY BLOW

We have a strongly fancied favourite here in the shame of Diese Des Bieffes and to be fair he has a massive chance along with Mr Big Shot and Sire Du Berlais but it’s the ease with which he won last time that sets Blow By Blow Apart and despite going up sharply in the weights he looks to have a winning opportunity.

5.30 (Grand Annual) – NORTH HILL HARVEY

Our horse may be backed into favouritism by the time the race goes off and is expected to provide Dan and Harry Skelton with a well deserved festival winner in the finale.  Vaniteux looks the main danger so long as he comes back to form as expected after his surgery, while both Dolos and Le Prezien hold place chances for the Paul Nicholls team who could really do with a big win.

Wednesday, 14 March 2018

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Day Three: Yanworth To Outstay Them In Day Three Highlight

We could see an old favourite confirm a new lease of life in the Stayers’ Hurdle at 3.30 as the Cheltenham Festival 2018 passes its half-way mark.  Here’s what we think can do the business on day three:

1.30 (JLT Novices’ Chase) – TERREFORT

Nicky Henderson’s five-year-old is 2 from 2 since joining the stable from France including having won a Grade 1 race last time out at Sandown and for me he brings both the best form and the most potential into the race.  Soft going is fine as is the trip and he appears to be a very strong candidate.

Benatar of Gary Moore’s would be a confident second choice had he been doing his winning on softer going but that’s not to say he won’t handle it, while likely favourite Invitation Only looks certain to be on the premises as well under the genial Ruby Walsh.

2.10 (Pertemps Final) – LOUIS’ VAC POUCH

A hellishly competitive race as always and one in which luck will surely play a key part.  Phillip Hobbs’ Louis’ Vac Pouch however starred at Aintree in the November meeting and has been kept off the track since.  He handled the soft ground no problem that day over this trip and despite Cheltenham being a very different challenge to Liverpool, he is taken to score.

Messrs Glenloe, Sort It Out and Forza Milan who was beaten into second by the selection at Aintree all hold chances at varying prices but with any luck will all be fighting only for place money come 2.15.

2.50 (Ryanair Chase) – BALKO DES FLOS

Un De Sceaux is the likely short priced favourite here but does all his best work at two miles usually.  He did win this race last year but on ratings it wasn’t his best performance and was achieved on good ground, a far cry from what he’ll race on here.

Old favourite Cue Card is more solid in these conditions and if he can repeat what he did at Ascot last time the old-timer can outwit the jolly, however on the numbers I’d say Balko Des Flos put in the same sort of performance at Leopardstown last time over three miles and so given that it was his best ever run and that at seven he has more improvement in him, he seems a fair pick at a good price.

3.30 (Stayers’ Hurdle) – YANWORTH

Sam Spinner comes into this as favourite and it’s easy to see why.  A Grade 3 handicap hurdle win at Haydock was followed up with a win in the Long Walk Hurdle over Christmas at Ascot and that form entitles him to come into this with a huge chance, but ultimately he’s not the one for me.

Previously a top class two-mile hurdler, Yanworth was sent chasing this season and managed to win the Grade 2 Dipper around here but has been aimed at this race ever since then and frankly is the best horse in this race all things considered.  The fact that Yanworth is still only 8 means there could be more to come and I think that improvement will be unlocked over this trip.

4.10 (Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate) – LAST GOODBYE

His 2m5f win in a very tough handicap chase on soft ground at Leopardstown entitles our horse to come into this with a major opportunity and in a race where plenty hold chances, we’ll go with the rock solid form of the County Wexford-trained horse.

Six-year-old King’s Socks can still improve enough to take a hand in the finish here while Movewiththetimes will be popular on course for the combo of JP McManus, Paul Nicholls and Barry Gerraghty.

4.50 (Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle) – LAURINA

There may yet be some value in backing Maria’s Benefit who is on a 6-timer but to win she’ll have to hope for a mistake from the likely favourite Laurina.  Willie Mullins’ mare did the job really well on heavy ground at Fairyhouse last time on only her second hurdle start and will have been trained for this specifically.

Ratings suggest this is a two-horse race and while things are never quite that simple at the festival it would seem as though something totally unexpected will have to come from the clouds to sneak past the market leaders.

5.30 (Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup) – MISSED APPROACH

The debate rages on over whether or not horses are at an advantage having recently received wind operations, but there’s no doubt it has helped some of them and in the case of Missed Approach he’s a horse I’d have wanted to have backed anyway so the surgery me be a bonus.

Warren Greatrex is confident of a big run from his eight-year-old who may be troubled most by Nicky Henderson’s challenger Sugar Baron who’s been runner-up in two decent races this season.

Tuesday, 13 March 2018

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Day Two: Henderson To Score In Champion Chase Thriller

The festival steps up a gear on day two with a mouth-watering clash between Altior, Douvan and Min on the cards in the feature Queen Mother Champion Chase at 3.30 and there is great value to be had elsewhere on the card.

Huge handicaps the Coral Cup and the Fred Winter are on the card and we have nicely priced selections in both.  Here’s hoping for a profitable day at Prestbury Park!

1.30 (Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle) – NEXT DESTINATION

Samcro has been called a potential superstar and I won’t disagree with the sentiment.  He’s unbeaten his whole career so far and took his Grade One in style last time at Leopardstown.  That was over two miles though so I prefer to compare his second ever over hurdles run with the second run of Next Destination.

Both faced similar conditions over 2m4f and in my opinion Willie Mullins’ horse was more impressive, so up to 2m4f here I’d go for the value with the second favourite.

2.10 (RSA Novices’ Chase) – ELEGANT ESCAPE

More experienced over fences than some major rivals here despite being only a six-year-old, Elegant Escape won easily over this trip on heavy ground at Exeter last time and won’t shirk the challenge.  Monalee can improve into a place now up in trip while the tough Black Corton is sure to go well also.

2.50 (Coral Cup) – LE BREUIL

There’s always a chance of something going wrong in such big fields and these races have the look of a ‘stick a pin in’ type of contest, but we’ll fly in with a punt on Le Breuil of Ben Pauling’s.  95 days off the track is ideal for a horse who should have plenty in the tank and will handle the conditions.

William Henry and Burbank both hold good place chances and are sure to go well, however at prices like 14 and 16/1 overnight our improving six-year-old looks the one to be on and could take the money.

3.30 (Queen Mother Champion Chase) – ALTIOR

Unless there is a slight surprise regarding the returning Douvan, surely Altior at odds-against is one of the bets of the festival?  Having won last year’s Arkle easily, he is now 12 from 12 since going over jumps and is a bona fide superstar.

Douvan was sent off at 2/9 for this last year but including that race he’s been beaten twice now and has a long absence to overcome.  Stablemate Min would surely have a better chance of pressing the jolly but Ruby Walsh has plumped for the eight-year-old Douvan which doesn’t really scream of Min improving again from his win at Leopardstown  and he therefore shouldn’t be good enough to catch Nicky Henderson’s star.

4.10 (Glenfarclas Chase) – THE LAST SAMURI

Kim Bailey’s 10yo looks the perfect type for this cross-country test and is taken to score ahead of likely favourite Cause Of Causes.  The latter won this last year and in fact has won at three festivals in a row, a true crowd favourite, but it just may be that The Last Samuri proves to be a battle-hardened warrior in time having shown up well against the likes of Blaklion and Definitly Red in recent times.

4.50 (Fred Winter) – ACT OF VALOUR

Brian Ellison’s contender The King Of May has a lot to offer here at a pretty big price and cannot be underestimated having run extremely well on his stable debut in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle (Listed) but the improvement could come from Paul Nicholls’ ACT OF VALOUR and it’s him we’ll be backing.

An impressive win at Newcastle on hurdling debut has since been followed up by a second in the same race as the King Of May was third in and if that form holds up the way it’s expected to then he can score here at reasonable odds under Adrian Heskin.

5.30 (Weatherbys Champion Bumper) – CAREFULLY SELECTED

As always there’s a strong Irish challenge here and with that in mind we cannot disregard Joseph O’Brien’s Rhinestone who would look to hold every chance of getting at least some place money while Gordon Elliott’s Felix Desjy will also be popular in the ring.

Willie Mullins though is the king and he comes into this race with three proper chances in the shape of Blackbow, Tornado Flyer and our selection who I think achieved more on his bumper debut that the other contenders and so with natural improvement could have the beating of them here at a big price.

Monday, 12 March 2018

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Day One: Kalashnikov To Shoot Down Rivals During Festival Opener

The 2018 Cheltenham Festival kicks off with no less than four Grade One races on Tuesday and despite the heavy ground and healthy competition, betting opportunities abound at Prestbury Park for us.

With any luck Amy Murphy, Harry Whittingdon, Colin Tizzard and Fergal O’Brien can interrupt the Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson party with winners on day one and most likely all at great value prices as the bookies continue to run scared of the big names.

This year’s festival, on the opening day at least, promises to be a real test though with a better forecast for day two things could start to get easier for the equine stars of the show.  Here’s what we see as being the best bets on day one:

1.30 (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) – KALASHNIKOV

We could be in for a very close finish here with top contenders Kalashnikov, Getabird and Summerville Boy all within a few pounds of each other but I just feel that the first named is more battle-hardened than when finishing four lengths behind Summerville Boy at Newbury this season.

Amy Murphy’s horse resumed improvement when winning the Betfair Hurdle and could prove too strong in the festival curtain-raiser.  First Flow and Paloma Blue also hold each-way chances.

2.10 (Arkle Chase) – SAINT CALVADOS

Luckily for punters the Arkle is generally won simply by the best horse in the race, the trouble is that we can’t all agree on which horse that is this year.  Favourite Footpad is admittedly impressive and would surprise nobody if coming home in front but his best performances having come over slightly further and having been beaten by next best Petit Mouchoir last year I feel there are doubts with him.

In Saint Calvados though I only see positives and perhaps even more improvement on the big day so he gets the vote for this Grade One, potentially giving Harry Whittingdon a huge career moment.

2.50 (Ultima Handicap Chase) – RAMSES DE TAILLEE

Despite his relative inexperience over the larger obstacles the vote goes to Ramses De Taillee to give David Pipe and Tom Scudamore the win.  Vintage Clouds may be the one for money on raceday and must be watched, potentially running into at least a place.

3.30 (Champion Hurdle) – FAUGHEEN

Nicky Henderson’s superstar Buveur D’Air comes into the race having won it last year and as a long odds-on favourite, however I can’t escape the fact that he took a big step forward to win this in 2017 on ground better than he had raced on before.

This year he faces deep going and could be outdone by the other bona fide superstar in the race in Faugheen.  Willie Mullins’ charge can regain the title he won in 2015 and despite his problems is still in training for a very good reason.  Wicklow Brave could be best of the rest.

4.10 (Mares’ Hurdle) – APPLE’S JADE

The likely favourite here for Gordon Elliott could have won this year in different company so seeing off these mares over this trip should be well within her wheelhouse.  Benie Des Dieux is solid enough and will lie in wait should there be any flaws in the jolly, but all things being equal should not be good enough to quite win it.

La Bague Au Roi can be best of the rest given she has talent but is probably better over further than this and so despite the stamina test this year running into the money should still be seen as success.

4.50 (National Hunt Chase) – SIZING TENNESSEE

One of the more experienced types in the field, he has strong claims based on his staying-on second to Yanworth here in January and arguably there is much more to come from him.  The ground was heavy that day so there are no concerns on that score and it seems the longer trip will only bring about more improvement from him.

Likely jolly Jury Duty has better form on paper than Sizing Tennessee but having already run over further we kind of know what to expect, whereas the tip hasn’t been fully exposed over longer distances.  Mossback and Rathvinden may run on for place money.

5.30 (Novices’ Handicap Chase) – BARNEY DWAN

Gloucestershire handler Fergal O’Brien has booked Noel Fehily for Barney Dwan and I wouldn’t be surprised whatsoever if he flies in to land a hat-trick and a famous festival win.

The 8yo won on the heavy going over hurdles and seems to need a decent stamina test so rates a fair bet at a value price to go in on day one.  Top trainer Willie Mullins brings Livelovelaugh to the party and it would be no big surprise to see him go well at a nice price while the market will no doubt speak in favour of De Plotting Shed and Any Second Now.

Thursday, 22 February 2018

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Ante Post: Sailing Up The River To Gold Cup Glory?

A lot can change between now and March 13th but as things stand, this is how we see the best of the Grade One action which forms the centrepiece of what promises to be a £500million betting week.


Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2m½f)

Willie Mullins’ Getabird is clear favourite for the traditional Cheltenham curtain-raiser but at a general 7/4 is priced to fit his trainer’s reputation more than his own ability.
Stable mate Laurina and especially KALASHNIKOV look more generously priced to me.  Newmarket trainer Amy Murphy may land a famous festival win with her 5yo Kalanisi gelding who looks at least fairly priced up in the run-up to the event.  Apple’s Shakira and Samcro are others of note at reasonable odds.

Arkle Trophy (2m)

Although more improvement is expected from Henry De Bromhead’s Petit Mouchoir, it has to be said that Willie Mullins’ Footpad beat him comfortably in the Irish Arkle last time and should do so again, albeit at restrictive odds.
The most interesting one for me though is general 5/1 shot SAINT CALVADOS who won with his head in his chest at Warwick for Harry Whittingdon and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see sufficient improvement from the young horse to go on and score here.  Brain Power remains of interest at bigger prices.

Champion Hurdle (2m)

Willie Mullins has five of the top 7 listed in the betting this year but none of them are rock solid favourite Buveur D’Air who is odds-on to give Nicky Henderson yet another festival winner.  Last year’s winner has been primed for the task after winning easily at Sandown last time and is many punters’ idea of a banker.
My Tent Or Yours and Faugheen are sure to be popular, however at up to 25/1 Gordon Elliott’s 6yo APPLE’S JADE is terrific value and should go off at a nice each-way price.


RSA Novices’ Chase (3m½f)

Presenting Percy is favourite for the race at this stage but looks vulnerable against a competitive field.  Paul Nicholls’ Black Corton has been busy but must have every chance here at a reasonable price, around the 8/1 mark generally at the time of writing.
Monalee looks a little short to me while Willoughby Court is solid enough, though the value for me appears to lie with six-year-olds Elegant Escape and BENATAR with Gary Moore’s chaser looking the one with more improvement in him following a Grade 2 win in December.

Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m)

Although we have an odds-on favourite here it’s close at the top of the market in truth and the race could pan out much better than we’d all originally thought, though ultimately I have to say it’s easy to see the big three thrashing out the finish of a race such as this.
Altior is said odds-on favourite having won all seven of his chases so far and there’s no doubt that Nicky Henderson’s charge is bang in with a shout, however with a very similar level of form having run two chases less MIN is slightly better value.
The Willie Mullins 7yo could improve past the jolly while Douvan, for the same connections, cannot be discounted either despite having been off the track for a year since his disappointment in this race last year.


Ryanair Chase (2m4½f)

A fascinating race in which established chasers Sub Lieutenant, Fox Norton and current favourite Un De Sceaux all have reasonable chances.
The value may lie in the younger pretenders though with a trio of seven-year-olds all looking like improving enough to land a race of this nature, starting with Henry De Bromhead’s Balko Des Flos.  He hasn’t won since taking the 2017 Galway Plate but is still getting better and shouldn’t be too far away.
Top Notch is well-named and a look at his profile overall says there’s still more to come, however he was soundly beaten by WAITING PATIENTLY when the two clashed at Ascot last time and it’s easy to see Ruth Jefferson’s charge going on to win here, assuming she decides to take up the option.

Stayers’ Hurdle (3m)

It’s not the best division in all honesty though it’s been made better by the potential participation of YANWORTH who so far is my idea of the winner.  Alan King’s star stepped up to this trip at Aintree last spring and scored ahead of likely favourite Supasundae and I’d back him to hold that one off again after his 2m5f win here in January on bad ground.
Other potential improvers over this trip are Jedd O’Keefe’s Sam Spinner and Penhill of Willie Mullins’ though they perhaps lack a little something and may not get past what I consider to be the big two.


Triumph Hurdle (2m1f)

It’s always difficult to get a handle on the four-year-olds with a sharper rate of improvement to come from them on the big day itself, though after four hurdle races we pretty much know what to expect from strong favourite Apple’s Shakira who also has an engagement in the Supreme Novice’s.
I think that one is vulnerable however to something improving past her with first of all Farclas of Gordon Elliott’s looking overpriced at 9/1 and especially general 8/1 shot MR ADJUDICATOR of the powerful Willie Mullins yard who may take the spoils.  We Have A Dream and Stormy Ireland have place prospects.

Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2½f)

The big one looks competitive this year despite some high profile absentees with Brian Ellison’s stayer Definitly Red looking great value for a place at a general 16/1.
Last year’s winner Sizing John should go well once more along with Our Duke while it’s easy to see why Might Bite looks like going into this race a strong favourite.  Nicky Henderson’s charge needed a career best to win the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and has not been seen since, apparently primed for crack at this race and he’ll be tough to beat.
If anything looks like getting past Might Bite it could be NATIVE RIVER of Colin Tizzard’s.  He won at Newbury last year before coming into this race fairly well fancied; only being beaten 2¾ lengths having just lost second close to home.
He won the same Newbury prep race last time out and was at least half a stone better in it than last year, so the improvement he’s shown will hopefully mean he can go on to land the Gold Cup this time around at 5/1 or better.

Tuesday, 26 December 2017

King George VI Chase Day Tips: Don't tuck into the leftovers, Bite!

Embed from Getty Images
James Stevens gives us his best bets from Kempton.

12:45 - If The Cap Fits
I really rate this horse and I hope he can stamp his class over this very good race here. Noel Fehily picked him against the Nicky Henderson rival, and his performance over hurdles have been nothing short of outstanding so far and I expect him to continue his progression here.

Storm Home is a horse I think can continue improving and although this is a very good race, then he can nick a bit of each-way money.

1:20 - Whenyourreadyfreddy
Nicky Henderson could have a massive day at Kempton today and both of his have a big chance in this. I think this is the preferred choice, after making an encouraging fourth-place finish last time out. He should improve from that and I would expect him to go very close.

1:55 - Fountain's Windfall
This horse looked to be travelling really strongly before falling at Newbury last time. I thought he may have won that day but he could make amends here. He is really well regarded and remains the type of horse than continue over fences this year. He should go well and have a really good chance. Ballyoptic is a big danger and could run a big race.

2:30 - Buveur D'Air (simply)
This race is more about watching than betting, so just enjoy it! Buveur D'Air is a class act but the bookmakers have accounted for it.

3:05 - Might Bite
I love this horse and I really think he can win the big one today. He was excellent at Cheltenham and Aintree before looking a bit more mature at Sandown last time. I think conditions will suit him really well and he more than certainly has the class to take a race of this nature. I think he will win the King George. Thistlecrack is my each-way fancy here.

3:40 - Kildisart
This is a very smart horse and I think he is very well handicapped for today's test. He shaped well on his first start before winning impressively when last seen at Ascot. He can continue to build on that run and can run a fine race here.

Saturday, 16 December 2017

International Meeting Day Two: I am sweet on Melon

Embed from Getty Images
We had four winners yesterday, including 16-1 Bless The Wings, and James Stevens has picked out his best bets from day two of the International Meeting.

12:10 - Apple's Shakira
This is one to watch! Apple's Shakira was tipped and was outstanding on her sole start for Nicky Henderson and she will improve for the run and something will need to be amiss for her to get beat today.

12:45 - Movewiththetimes
Paul Nicholls thinks very highly of this horse who has ran very well in his two outings over fences. He finished second at this track a month ago in what looked a very hot race, and he won't face as good a rival as Finian's Oscar here. He will like the conditions and he can run a very big race here.

1:20 - Gino Trial, Bentelimar ew
Kerry Lee's ten-year-old was a very stylish winner at Wetherby a few weeks back and can continue to run well here. He acts very well on this sort of ground, and although he hasn't ran here, I would be confident he can run a fine race.

Bentelimar could be well-handicapped here and despite a poor effort last time could bounce back on ground that will suit.

1:55 - Le Prezien
I think Paul Nicholls' charge can land the big one today after running so well here a month back. He goes off 2lb higher but there is a big run to come from him soon, I am sure of it and he can build on what he has already achieved. He will enjoy the conditions and can go very well here.

2:30 - Kilbricken Storm, Global Stage
This is a very interesting Grade Two and I have been stuck on it for a while. Kilbricken Storm ran really well at Wincanton last month and won quite easily and this will measure how good he is. This is isn't the strongest race and he must have a chance, especially as he runs well in similar conditions.

Global Stage is the outsider of the field but his form adds up really well and he could certainly outrun his odds here.

3:05 - Melon
I really was impressed by the way Melon destroyed the field over in Ireland on his last start and I think there is every reason he can do it again. He has always been regarded as an excellent hurdler and poses a stiff threat to The New One. He is unexposed but there should be a bit more improvement to come this year.

3:40 - Momella, Copper Kay
Momella goes handicapping after some very good efforts as a novice hurdler and I really think she can be excellent in this type of race. She won her first two starts very well before finishing an excellent second to On The Blind Side here last month. This opening mark is very workable, she will enjoy the conditions and can run a big race here.

Phillip Hobbs thinks very highly of Copper Kay, who takes another drop down the handicap after a disappointing effort at Wincanton last month. She should act on the ground and has won at Cheltenham before, so must be capable of making the places.